President Zelensky warns that Russia may be plotting new military aggression from Belarus under the guise of upcoming joint exercises, raising alarms about potential threats beyond Ukraine’s borders.
At a Glance
- Zelensky cautioned that Russia is preparing something in Belarus under the pretense of the Zapad-2025 military exercises scheduled for this summer
- Belarus, while not directly fighting in Ukraine, hosts Russian troops and missiles and serves as a strategic corridor between NATO and Moscow
- Previous Zapad exercises in 2021 involved over 200,000 troops and preceded Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine
- Ukrainian military leaders fear these drills could allow Russia to covertly assemble offensive forces near NATO’s eastern flank
- Western intelligence agencies warn of potential wider European conflict within five years due to Russia’s military posture
Russia’s Shadow Operations in Belarus
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued a stark warning to European nations about Russian military activities in neighboring Belarus. The warning focuses specifically on the upcoming Zapad-2025 joint military exercises, which have historically served as cover for Russian troop movements. Belarus, under the leadership of Alexander Lukashenko, has allowed Russian forces to use its territory for attacks against Ukraine since the beginning of the 2022 invasion, creating a dangerous launching pad on NATO’s doorstep.
“Look at Belarus — this summer, Russia is preparing something there under the guise of military exercises. This is how its new attacks usually start.”, said Volodymyr Zelensky.
Belarus occupies a critical strategic position, sharing borders with Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Russia. This geography makes it an ideal staging ground for Russian operations directed at both Ukraine and potentially NATO countries. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has suggested that the Zapad exercises provide perfect cover for Russia to assemble offensive forces without drawing immediate international attention, echoing tactics used before previous military escalations.
Historical Context of Zapad Exercises
The Zapad (meaning “West” in Russian) military drills have been conducted biennially since 2009, consistently featuring scenarios hostile to Western nations. The 2021 iteration involved over 200,000 participants and was followed months later by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This pattern has raised serious concerns among security analysts about what might follow the 2025 exercises. Belarus’s role as host nation places it squarely in the center of growing tensions between Russia and NATO countries
Belarusian opposition adviser Franak Viačorka has emphasized that these exercises typically include simulated conflicts with Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine. Past drills have even incorporated simulated nuclear strikes against Western targets, underscoring the provocative nature of these military demonstrations. As Belarus falls more deeply under Russian influence, its capacity to resist being used as a military platform diminishes, effectively transforming it into what some analysts describe as a “militarized satellite” of Moscow.
Broader Threats to European Security
President Zelensky’s concerns extend beyond immediate threats to Ukraine. During the Munich Security Conference, he revealed intelligence suggesting Putin might deploy up to 150,000 troops in Belarus, potentially signaling preparation for future offensive actions against NATO countries. This assessment aligns with Zelensky’s belief that Russia’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine’s borders and could manifest in direct confrontation with Western allies as soon as 2026.
In response to these growing threats, NATO allies have increased intelligence sharing ahead of the Zapad 2025 exercises. Simultaneously, the alliance is conducting its own Tarassis 25 exercise, the largest Joint Expeditionary Force Northern European exercise to date. Ukraine’s foreign ministry has publicly warned it will take necessary self-defense measures against any border violations, while the Institute for the Study of War notes that “The Kremlin is advancing toward a de facto annexation of Belarus,” further destabilizing the region and creating additional security challenges for Europe’s eastern flank.