As President Biden steps down and Donald Trump prepares his return, the world watches anxiously as the diplomatic chess game unfolds between the U.S. and China, pivotal for global peace or potential disaster.
At a Glance
- U.S. maintains “strategic ambiguity” over Taiwan to prevent provocative actions.
- Debate over “strategic clarity” poses potential risks of escalation.
- Southeast Asian countries shifting allegiances affect regional dynamics.
- The outcome of ongoing diplomatic efforts remains uncertain, hinting potential disappointments.
Diplomatic Balancing Act
The U.S. has long used a policy of “strategic ambiguity” with respect to Taiwan, seeking to deter both Taiwan and China from taking aggressive actions. Yet, the debate continues whether the U.S. should shift to “strategic clarity” by expressing clear intentions to defend Taiwan. Advocates for clarity warn of the risks of escalation, which could lead to catastrophe.
The Biden administration’s approach included increased arms sales to Taiwan and vocal support for its defense. Experts suggest a renaming from “One China” policy to “cross-strait policy,” which would clarify U.S. intentions and counter China’s narratives. These changes highlight the intricate nature of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations, mixing military, economic and political dimensions.
Shifting Sands
Significant leadership transitions in Southeast Asia have impacted relations with China. The Philippines has leaned toward the U.S. due to China’s assertive moves in contested waters. In contrast, Malaysia, under Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, has embraced China, backing projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Vietnam and the Philippines show a stronger preference toward U.S. alignment, standing apart from their counterparts.
As China continues its military assertiveness and economic strategies, the U.S. is compelled to reinforce alliances. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s summit engagements in South America emphasized China’s image as an advocate for open trade and stability — outcomes that seem evermore crucial as global diplomacy faces U.S. President Joe Biden’s transition and the anticipated policies of President-elect Donald Trump.
U.S.-China Dynamic
The U.S.-China relationship remains among the world’s most consequential, with China presenting potential existential and systemic threats akin to the Thucydidean trap of historical rivalries. China is one of only two nations with nuclear arsenals capable of ensuring mutual destruction with the U.S., urging cooperation despite rivalry.
World leaders, including British PM Keir Starmer and Australian PM Anthony Albanese, stress the need for stable U.S.-China ties, even as these tensions persist. Communication channels regaining momentum, witnessed by a Biden-Xi meeting, which signals readiness for cooperation during Trump’s impending term, but the true diplomatic success of these engagements awaits an uncertain future.