Lisa Murkowski’s political coalition is unraveling as her approval ratings plummet, raising the prospect of a major shakeup in Alaska’s power structure and exposing the fragility of centrist politics in today’s polarized climate.
Story Snapshot
- Murkowski’s favorability among progressives and moderates in Alaska has collapsed, with a 75-point drop among progressives.
- Her support for Trump’s tax and spending bill fueled backlash, even as she contemplates a run for governor.
- Alaska’s unique open primaries and ranked-choice voting amplify the consequences of her fractured coalition.
- The Republican Party may gain strength as Murkowski’s centrist model falters, shifting Alaska’s political balance.
Shocking Collapse of Murkowski’s Base Support
Recent polling from Alaska Survey Research shows Senator Lisa Murkowski’s favorability crashing to 33 percent, with a net favorability swing of minus 28 points since April 2025. Among self‑described moderates, the poll indicates her net favorability fell by about 26 points during the same period. Moderates also withdrew support, moving 26 points against her. This rapid decline comes as Murkowski mulls a potential gubernatorial bid, putting her once-powerful centrist alliance at risk and leaving her future in question.
🚨 BREAKING: Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) PLUMMETS to just 33% favorability rating, 60% negative – a staggering decline of 28 points since April of this year, per new Alaska Survey Research poll.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) August 5, 2025
HUGE yikes. pic.twitter.com/xIFatfHEjm
These poll results suggest that the centrist coalition, including moderate Republicans, independents, and Democrats, may be eroding. The polling numbers signal deep dissatisfaction from her traditional base, triggered by her recent votes and public statements. Conservatives in Alaska have long distrusted Murkowski for her willingness to cross party lines, but now even her progressive and moderate backers have turned away. Alaska’s open primary and ranked‑choice election system has enabled historically cross‑party coalitions. However, if a candidate’s broad base loses cohesion, as Murkowski’s may be, the system can also amplify electoral vulnerability.
Trump’s Economic Agenda Sparks Political Fallout in Alaska
Murkowski’s decision to support Trump‑backed tax and spending legislation has drawn criticism from both progressives and moderates concerned about implications for federal funding and social services in Alaska. While she described her vote as “agonizing,” the decision triggered backlash not only from progressives but also from moderates who fear the loss of federal funding and cuts to social programs. Alaska is uniquely dependent on federal dollars, and any policy that threatens this flow is likely to stir anger across the spectrum. Murkowski’s gamble on supporting a Republican-led economic package—intended to stimulate growth and curb inflation—appears to have further destabilized her coalition.
Some Alaskans express concern about fiscal sustainability and ideological policy interventions, criticizing both perceived government overreach and partisan brinkmanship. While Trump’s fiscal measures have won praise from those demanding smaller government and fiscal responsibility, Murkowski’s attempt to straddle both worlds has pleased neither side. Her critics on the right argue that her moderate stance undermines conservative values, while the left accuses her of enabling policies that erode social safety nets.
Implications for Alaska’s Political Landscape and the GOP
Alaska’s unique electoral system—combining open primaries and ranked-choice voting—has historically allowed politicians like Murkowski to build cross-party coalitions. However, the recent collapse of her support base suggests that the era of centrist dominance may be ending. Should Murkowski remain politically vulnerable, Alaska’s Republican Party, especially its conservative faction, may gain greater influence. This could mean a shift toward more traditional Republican governance, with less tolerance for bipartisan compromise and a renewed focus on constitutional protections, fiscal restraint, and border enforcement.
If Murkowski’s decline continues, moderate and progressive voters in Alaska may feel increasingly underrepresented in statewide office. At the same time, challengers from both parties are likely to be emboldened, seeing an opening to reshape the state’s leadership. As Murkowski is not up for Senate re-election until 2028, her immediate political future may hinge on whether she decides to run for governor—and whether she can recover support among disillusioned voters.
Expert Analysis and the Road Ahead
Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research noted that the poll results demonstrate a rapid and significant decline in Murkowski’s favorability among key voter groups. Stanford political scientist Andrew Hall observes that moderates increasingly struggle in a polarized political environment, noting that ‘extreme rhetoric and policies’ tend to draw attention and funding—while centrist positions often alienate potential supporters. While Alaska’s distinctive political culture allows for comebacks, Murkowski faces significant obstacles if she hopes to regain trust. The collapse of her coalition serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of ideological inconsistency and the limits of coalition politics in today’s America.
In the short term, Murkowski’s declining popularity may discourage her from entering the gubernatorial race, while the long-term effects could reshape Alaska’s political landscape for years to come. With federal funding and local governance at stake, Alaskans face uncertainty over who will best represent their interests and values in a rapidly changing political climate.
Sources:
Juneau Empire, “Statewide poll: Trump, Murkowski provoke strongest feelings,” Mar. 31, 2025.